Robots, as a typical representative of hard technology, used to be noble and high-end; Now, it has to be said that technological advances and the popularity of the industry have made robots become "commonplace" rather than sexy.
In 2013, when many domestic robot companies have not yet been established, the Chinese market industrial robot sales of 36,800 units, "four big families" in China's shipments or thousands of units, domestic robot shipments of manufacturers can be counted by two hands, compared with the "four big families", Domestic robot manufacturers whether it is products, technology or scale can be used to describe the "left behind".
There is also a small matter, in 2013, Gao Gong robot was founded.
In 2023, the "epidemic" has gradually no longer been mentioned, replaced by the search for confidence, in the robot industry, 2023 can be called the most difficult year in the past decade, but we believe that the resilience of China's robot industry is still there, especially domestic robots are expected to usher in a greater breakthrough. It is boldly predicted that the share of domestic robots is expected to be close to 50% in 2023.
Industrial robot
From 2013 to 2023, the compound growth rate of industrial robot sales in the Chinese market exceeded 24%, and the compound growth rate of domestic industrial robot sales exceeded 32%. Domestic share increased from 24% in 2013 to nearly 50% in 2023.
If time has a scale, the scale of the past decade must have the mark of Chinese robots.
In the 10-year scale, the first five years, domestic industrial robots are creeping forward, more in the long tail market "guerrilla", at that time, the four families are more "dismissive" of domestic manufacturers.
After five years, domestic industrial robots seem to have found their own field, began the strategy of "positional warfare", and gradually gained a foothold in core industries such as lithium, photovoltaic, and 3C, and will promote more subdivisions. At this time, the four families began to "focus" on domestic manufacturers.
However, we still need to face a problem, from the perspective of products alone, there is still a gap between domestic and foreign investment, if you say, domestic manufacturers in which segment products and foreign investment gap is greater? The answer should be large-load robots, although in recent years many domestic manufacturers have begun to vigorously layout large-load robots, in addition to a few manufacturers have achieved batch applications (such as Eston), most manufacturers are still in the stage of polishing products, from the product logic point of view, without industrial batch application verified products are not mature.
If the road is blocked and long, the line will arrive.
Cooperative robot
In 2013, Universal Robots officially entered the Chinese market by establishing a subsidiary in Shanghai, China.
In 2014, Rethink Robotics introduced Baxter, its first collaboration machine.
In the same year, ABB released YuMi, the world's first two-arm human-machine collaboration robot.
FANUC, YASKAWA and other industrial robot manufacturers have launched collaborative robot products.
For a time, the concept of collaborative robots began to catch on in the robotics industry. At that time, many domestic collaborative robot companies had not yet been established.
In 2018, the share of domestic manufacturers in the Chinese market exceeded that of foreign manufacturers for the first time, and the share of domestic manufacturers has expanded year by year since then.
Today, 10 years later, there are more than 70 collaborative robot manufacturers in China, with sales exceeding 20,000 units, of which the share of domestic manufacturers is close to 85%. According to GGII data, the compound growth rate of collaborative robot sales in the Chinese market from 2013 to 2023 exceeded 60%, of which domestic manufacturers have become the backbone.
As a track that has been surrounded by "praise" and "death knell" since its birth, the growth rate of collaborative robots has slowed down and the "price war" has intensified in recent years, which has virtually accelerated the reshuffle and differentiation in the field, and even a harmonic reducer manufacturer has expressed a "pessimistic" look on the volume of collaborative robots.
When everyone is waiting to see who will be the first domestic collaborative robot, it seems that the more critical variable is who can truly rely on collaborative robot products to truly achieve sustained profit and growth.
It is true that collaborative robots are no longer the "flow of small students" of the year, and they need to face the transformation and breakthrough from "idol" to "force".
retarder
The reducer, strictly speaking, should be a precision reducer, which is often concerned with the rise of industrial robots, and was once called a typical "jam neck".
The two Japanese companies that have to mention in the field of reducer: Nabotsk and Hamenaco, have always been "never been surpassed" in the world.
Looking back at China's reducer industry over the past ten years, from the data point of view, it seems not too amazing, but stable enough. GGII data, 2013-2023 China's industrial robot reducer market sales compound growth rate of more than 22%.
From the perspective of subdivision products, benefiting from the volume of small-load robots and collaborative robots in the past, the progress and improvement of harmonic reducer seems to be more significant, during which, in addition to the listing of green harmonics, there are a number of domestic harmonic reducer manufacturers began to show the label of "can play", such as harmonic, Tongchuan precision, Germanmagnesium precision transmission.
In addition, another action after the acquisition of Kuka by the United States is also reflected in the reducer, and decided to personally do the reducer in the next step, and the polar fine machine was quietly established in 2021, which also broke the pattern of the four families not to do the reducer.
The rise of humanoid robots seems to have brought the joy of "discovering a new continent" to harmonic reducer manufacturers, and entering the integrated joint module has become the consensus of harmonic reducer manufacturers.
The progress of domestic RV reducer seems to be unsatisfactory, although Nabotsk's share in the Chinese market shrinks slightly every year, it still maintains more than 50% of the market share, and the dominant position is still in.
More difficult things may take longer to complete, we often use an indicator to measure the growth of a reducer manufacturer - customer repurchase rate. From this point of view, domestic RV reducer manufacturers such as ring technology, Zhitong technology, six-ring transmission and so on have made great progress and improvement in recent years.
In addition, the reducer manufacturers from a single category to more categories of extension is already happening, and will continue to play out in the future, whether it is from the RV extended to harmonics, harmonics extended to planets, or planets extended to harmonics, the basic skills of "iron" are the foundation of the body.
Welding robot
When it comes to welding robots, the first feeling may be too traditional, or it may be used more in the automotive industry, but the biggest feeling of the author is: ill-fated.
According to GGII data, the compound growth rate of welding robot sales in the Chinese market from 2013 to 2023 exceeds 14%, which does not seem to outperform the growth rate of the overall industrial robot.
As the largest application field of industrial robot technology, welding robots seem to carry everyone's very thick expectations. The earliest welding robots are more focused on the field of automotive welding, of which the four major families are absolutely dominant, mainly based on spot welding robots, and this field is still considered to be the "forbidden area" of domestic manufacturers.
Some people once hoped that the rise of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to lead domestic welding robots into the "forbidden area" of the automotive Oems, from the current situation, the process does not seem to be smooth, and even full of bumps.
As a relative gathering of domestic manufacturers in the field of arc welding robots, after 2019, around the general industrial field experienced a short "Xiaoyang spring", and in 2022, the "reverse spring cold" hit, and the welding robot began to bear pressure, but it can not be ignored that all kinds of new players with new technologies are stepping into the field. Such as Baichu Electronics, known as the "light of manufacturing", Magmet, known as the "Huawei" of welding machine industry, 3D vision manufacturer Zhixiang Optoelectronics... How to use digital and intelligent means to make welding robots breathe new life is what a new generation of players are determined to do.
Welding is called "steel tailor", as an ancient skill, its basic plate is determined by the cumulative output of steel, from this point of view, China's welding robot has at least 30 years to develop. In addition, the shortage of welders has led to the rigidity of downstream demand, and the current main contradiction has begun to change to the contradiction between the increasing demand for automatic welding downstream and the uneven capabilities of welding robot manufacturers.
There is a long way to go, I will search up and down.
System integration
Industrial robot system integrator, as the role closest to the user, has always been a "let people love and dislike" role, on the one hand, system integrator is the "dream lover" in the hearts of many ontology manufacturers, but in the capital market was once dubbed "engineering assembly" low value-added label and not promising.
GGII data, 2013-2023 China's robot system integration industry market size compound growth rate of more than 16%, from this data can be seen, the system integration field price war does not seem to be milder than the field of industrial robot ontology.
Once upon a time, system integrators had their day.
In 2015, the "Made in China 2025" proposed that the "Intelligent Manufacturing Development Plan (2016-2020)" and the "robot industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" were closely introduced, and the popularity of robots began to continue to rise, and continued to appear in the public eye.
Subsequently, many listed companies frequently took the initiative, opening the first wave of "merger and acquisition tide" in the field of Chinese robots, of which system integrators were the main objects of mergers and acquisitions at that time, and representative cases include Xinshida successively acquired Xiao Ao Xiang Rong; Eft has acquired Italy CMA, EVOLUT, WFC, etc.; Huazhong CNC acquired Jiangsu Jinming; Yellow River whirlwind acquisition of Ming craftsman intelligence; Hkust Intelligence successively acquired Huaxiao Precision and Guanzhi Automation; Esten acquired Yangzhou Shuguang; Asda acquired Qianjiang Robot, Songsheng Robot, Suo Luxin; Midea acquisition of Kuka robot, etc.
Good times are always short, in terms of integrators, looking back, the "oath" made by the merger and acquisition parties at that time seems to have failed to stand the test of time, whether it is "the trap of cheating a man who plays with women's feelings" or "the illusion of love at first sight", it is undeniable that most of the merger and acquisition cases did not meet expectations, or did not achieve the goal of "1+1 > 2". Some of the acquisitions ended in goodwill impairment.
Today, riding on the east wind of the science and technology board, many system integrators have completed the listing, and have opened the second and third business growth poles, or the upward vertical layout extension, or the left horizontal expansion.
Although there have been many joys and sorrows, it is undeniable that system integrators still carry the background color of China's industrial robot application, from this point of view, system integrators deserve the awe of the industry.
Mobile Robot (AGV/AMR)
In 2012, a merger and acquisition in the field of foreign mobile robots set off a "big wave" - Amazon's 775 million acquisition of robot company Kiva Systems, at that time, Zheng Yong (Ji Zhijia CEO) was still doing post-investment management and research work in an investment institution, Haikang Robot was not yet born, Wang Yongkun (Stend Robot CEO) was still reading his junior year. But I already have a robot dream.
Looking back, the inspiring effect of Kiva robot is greater than the benchmark effect. From 2014 to 2016, a new generation of mobile robot manufacturers in China was born like mushrooms. The AGV/AMR manufacturers born in this period can be described as the "golden generation" of mobile robots. Such as very Zhijia, Haikang robot, animal star intelligence, future robot, Stende robot, Xiangong intelligence and other manufacturers were born in this period.
In the next few years, the mobile robot track stars shining, the annual compound growth rate of more than 40%, the localization rate continues to remain at about 90%, while showing a strong "gold" ability, can be described as one of the main positions of domestic robots.
At the same time, we can see that the product form of mobile robot track continues to iterate and enrich, from a generation of magnetic strip navigation AGV to two-dimensional code type Kiva AGV, to SLAM navigation AMR, material box robots, unmanned forklift trucks and composite robots, it can be said that the evolution and evolution of mobile robots is a small miniature of robot progress.
We have said: if there is any segment of Chinese robots expected to lead the world, mobile robots may be one of the answers.
GGII data, 2013-2023 China mobile robot (AGV/AMR) market sales compound growth rate of more than 45%. After running at high speed in the first half, the mobile robot began to slow down, adjust its posture, and start again.
The second half of the mobile robot may be summed up as: Dare to evolve, the remaining is king.
Industrial AMR
AMR is short for Autonomous Mobile Robot, that is, autonomous mobile robot, which is a later derivative of AGV, with more emphasis on autonomy and flexibility.
Many AMR manufacturers were also called AGV manufacturers at the beginning of their establishment, and they began to change to AMR after 2018.
GGII data, 2016-2023 China's industrial AMR market sales compound growth rate of more than 75%, can be described as one of the hottest tracks.
Before 2020, the voice of AMR manufacturers was relatively weak, at that time, the market paid more attention to the KIVA AGV of "goods to people", and many e-commerce giants entered the game, or invested, or imported applications, or directly, of which Cainiao and JD.com were the main representatives.
After 2020, industrial AMR ushered in the real "outbreak", "money chasing the project" in the field is really staged, but the reversal of the plot also began to play in 2022, this bungee jump feeling of the gap quickly matured the heart of AMR manufacturers, more AMR manufacturers began to break their arms to survive, open source and throttle, in order to seek a new way out.
A name often heard in the AMR industry is: Hikon. Industry insiders say that the AMR industry has only two types of manufacturers, one is Hikang, the other is other manufacturers. Such all-round players as Haikang have both innate advantages and the success factors of the acquired efforts, more AMR manufacturers seem to be more suitable for singles champions, rooted in the subdivision field, through digging their own moat, and then obtain the opportunity and space for development.
The so-called easy to know is difficult to do, the most difficult thing is not to cross the domain we "know" and "do" between the gap, 2024, AMR manufacturers in addition to the forward no other way, Mo worry about the road without friends, the world who do not know you.
Machine vision
Machine vision is known as the eye of the machine.
After 2015, Chinese machine vision companies mushroomed and continued to emerge, and 3D vision began to open its eyes to see the world at that time.
Looking back on the development of the machine vision industry in the past few years, it can be said that this is a technology-intensive, talent-intensive field, doctors cluster, schools gather, many startups receive flowers and applause at the same time, but also from time to time should and should not be subjected to ridicule, belittling, misunderstanding and even denigrating from the industry, capital circle, peers. High expectations and premature inrolls seem to have cast a shadow over the 3D vision industry.
But eventually the gloom will lift.
On the other hand, even the international giant's 3D camera in the early times have not been less criticized and ridicule, the current relatively mature 2D vision is also the result of years of iteration and optimization, we are always used to hope on the birth of disruptive new technology and new products, and then solve the current dilemma in one move, it seems that this expectation in the industrial track some vain.
GGII data, 2013-2023 China's machine vision market scale compound growth rate of more than 30%, at first glance, it seems not too sexy track, but as a light, machine, electricity, computing, soft and other technical categories for one of the track, high barriers mean high gross profit and good business, such as Keenex, Cognex such international giants in the past for a long time: The state of being imitated, never surpassed.
However, it cannot be ignored that in the field of 2D array cameras, domestic manufacturers such as Haikang and Huarui have occupied a dominant position, accounting for more than 60% of the market; In the field of 2D linear array cameras, domestic manufacturers such as ECko Optoelectronics and Dusen Technology have actively pursued the pace of DALSA; In the field of 3D vision, domestic manufacturers such as Merkamand, Yi Vision Technology, deep vision intelligence, Easy thinking, Tuyang Technology, ObI Zhongguang, Zhixiang Optoelectronics, etc., have begun to emerge in their respective fields, and the MEMS optical sensor chips and modules integrated by Zhongke have torn open the small gap led by foreign investment in the field of optical sensor chips.
Electric jaw
Gripper, also known as gripper, is a product type of robot end effector. The use of industrial robots is mainly based on the imitation of human movement, the mechanical arm mimics the movement of human arms, and the claw mimics the movement of human fingers. From this point of view, the current hot humanoid robot dexterous hand also belongs to the category of electric claw.
For a long time in the past, the pneumatic clamp has been a "necessity" for the entire industrial automation, and many international giant manufacturers have been born in this field, such as SMC, SCHUNK, Festo, Parker and so on.
It needs to be acknowledged that in the field of pneumatic grippers, the gap between domestic brands and foreign brands is very large, and the sales volume of domestic brands accounts for less than 10%. It can be said that in the field of pneumatic grippers, foreign brands occupy an absolute dominant position.
Compared with the pneumatic gripper, the electric gripper started relatively late.
The rise of electric grippers is largely driven by the development of flexible production tools represented by collaborative robots. After 2015, the first batch of electric gripper enterprises began to emerge in China. Most of the current mainstream electric gripper enterprises were founded in this period, such as Dayuan Robot, Augmented Intelligence, Jun Robot, Huiling Technology, Yinshi Technology, Zhixing Robot, etc. Since then, the electric claw industry has opened a golden age of savage growth, and the application boundary has continued to expand, gradually extending from robots to industrial automation and medical fields, and new manufacturers have increased year by year.
GGII data, 2013-2023 China electric claw market sales compound growth rate of more than 50%, "electric ventilation" has been the core logic of the track in the past, the rise of humanoid robots, five-finger dexterous hands began to be concerned and sought after, as a typical mechanical and electrical soft control integrated products, The evolution and evolution of the electric gripper from two fingers to three fingers, four fingers and five fingers has invisibly brought greater imagination.
When the five-finger dexterous hand clicks the moment, the new era of electric claw may begin.
Six-dimensional force sensor
Six-dimensional force sensors have been a "forbidden area" for domestic manufacturers for a long time, especially in the field of civil industry, ATI in the United States occupies a strong dominant position, at that time, the main domestic representative manufacturers are mainly represented by Yuli.
Since the beginning of 2018, domestic manufacturers represented by Kunwei Technology, Yuli Instruments, Xinjingcheng sensors, and blue dot touch have successively entered the game, which has brought about a direct result of a decline in product prices, and the proportion of collaborative robots choosing six-dimensional force sensors has begun to rise.
As a typical high-barrier, high-value product module, 2016-2023 China's dimensional force sensor market sales compound growth rate of more than 55%, perhaps the spring of six-dimensional force sensors has just opened, and the rise of humanoid robots is one of the biggest driving factors.
In addition, the iterative evolution of the six-dimensional force sensor multi-technology route will also promote the rapid reduction of the comprehensive cost, at that time, the scene that could not afford to use the six-dimensional force sensor will be its powerful support.
peroration
"Robot" is from the past robot arm to more subdivision products, giving more intelligent elements, from this point of view, the golden decade of many subdivision "robot" products may be in the middle, such as machine vision, collaborative robots, mobile robots (AGV/AMR), welding robots, electric claws, polishing robots, commercial cleaning robots; Or perhaps just beginning, such as humanoid robots, dexterous hands, force sensors, other embodied intelligent robots; Or maybe it's not open yet, like...
Please do not believe that the development of the robot industry will be as quick as the Internet, and do not believe that the robot industry is close to the ceiling, but please believe that the past decade of Chinese robots is a decade of exploration, a decade of progress, and a decade of gold, and there will be more decades in the future, generation after generation of entrepreneurs and tide riders coming to the robot industry. They have light in their eyes and dreams in their hearts, and perhaps this is the chassis of the robot that is worth watching continuously.
Once upon a time, people who were deeply engaged in industry said: Please talk less about AI large models. People who do AI say: You don't understand big models. The former retorted: Do you know anything about industry?
On one side is the "old master" who holds a variety of core processes and experience, on the other hand, the newborn calf is not afraid of tigers, the new generation of "engineers" who hold AI and algorithms, and for a long time in the past, "old master" looked down on "engineers", and "engineers" think they are omnipotent.
And this, after several years of mutual education, the two sides seem to have begun to compromise each other, the "old master" began to pay attention to the changes brought by new technology, the "engineers" began to pay attention to the exploration and accumulation of the process, and tried to integrate the industrial mechanism and algorithm.
Perhaps this is the posture and body position of new technology, not to show off skills, not to write poems... The barrier of AI should not be a simple algorithm, and the greater value comes from how to combine with the industry.
Perhaps one day when you see the traditional industry plus the wings of AI began to breathe new life, please do not doubt, because this is how many doctor "engineers" roll up their sleeves into the game, squatting workshop climb production line dry out.
Perhaps the best way to start the next decade.
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